Jay:  Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another episode of the Jay Kim Show. Joining us today, we have a very special guest by the name of Francis Hunt. Francis is a trader, technical analyst, and teacher. With over 30 years of financial market experience, he is the originator of the Hunt Volatility Funnel Trading Methodology and is perhaps most well knew for being a top 100 blockchain and crypto market influencer along with his very popular and highly followed YouTube channels — the Market Sniper, the Crypto Sniper, and the Reset Sniper.

Francis also runs an education company at TheMarketSniper.com where he teaches a community of like-minded traders how to be successful and profitable by implementing the Hunt Volatility Funnel Trading methodology. Francis, welcome to the show.

Francis:  Hey, delighted to be you, Jay.

Jay:  I’m actually very excited to have you on today. I, luckily, by chance stumbled upon you on YouTube maybe 18 months or two years ago, wasn’t that active following you, but the more I’ve learned about you and the more people that I talk to that follow your work or have learned for you, it makes me feel like your work is a culmination, or a confluence, if you will, of many years of searching and researching for answers as I’ve taken my journey as an investor into markets. So part of this podcast, I’ve had on a lot of specialists, whether they be technicians, such as Jack Schwager or macro guys like the RealVision guys, or even commodity-focused guys that are very specific like Rick Rule, or these great people that have come on and they’ve talked about their craft, their specialty. But when it comes down to actually giving my audience something actionable that they can implement, it’s difficult to cross that over because these people have spent their careers — 30, 40, 50 years — honing their skill in this one very speciality. And then for someone to just come along and listen to a podcast or maybe view some content and try to implement that at maybe a very small scale, it’s very difficult to do that.

When I found what you were doing and what you were teaching, it found it to be the perfect mix. Not only that, the fact that you are open to all asset classes. A lot of old-school, traditional investors are very stubborn, and they only stay in their swim lane. For example, like crypto, a lot of them have rejected it for a long time.

I am very excited. I’m happy. We have a lot to get through today, so I want to begin with a little bit of background. You’ve obviously been a trader for a very long time. How did you get into investing? Were you ever working in the rat race at some point? At what point did you branch off and become a full-time trader?

Francis:  That’s a good one. I never really got into the big, corporate commercial space. My investing career, which precedes trading by some way, commenced in 1987. I was in the August army intake. I’d inherited a couple of pounds from a deceased aunt and was still very much wearing younger man clothes and was being drafted into military conscription in South Africa in 1987. The university dropouts, which is what I was, were all dragged into the August intake, and I put my entire net worth into Unitrust. It wasn’t particularly creative. I had individual stocks in mind, but I was also influenced by my parents who had been pretty successful in the run-up that was a bull market, as you may or may not know. I put the job lot into a well-known old mutual and Liberty Life, Unitrust, only to see them lose about 40% of its entire value within about four or five weeks of hitting the army, which was quite a challenge in its own right.

The good part about that was it was an immediate failure if the truth be told, but I didn’t have any need for the funds, so I sort of sat through it throughout the two years that I was on full conscription, and then there was a partial recovery. It subsequently, as it has always done in their modern era, went to new highs. It was something that bit me quite early, and then I got into more active trading and select stocks and individuals. But that was just a young man’s initial investment experience, and that’s where it probably all started, with the bull market of the ’87s.

But then I graduated into more broad aspects, and I have had a financial interest, I have an an economic interest which leads into politics. As we are today, we are the three world views, which is Crypto Sniper, the Market Sniper, and the Research Sniper. And the Research Sniper is a long, overdue, end-of-cycle of the macro credit expansion. The big bubble is dead.

People will talk about gold and silvers being in bubbles. You’re going to hear it. It’s all largely misinformation. It’s a readjustment to the fact that we’re in a fiat-proliferation model that’s at end-of-stage, end-of-cycle.

Part of that replacement cycle is a whole bunch of things they plan to do. These guys never let a good crisis that they’ve manufactured go to waste. They’ll implement a whole bunch of new things, which the technology of the era has now caught up to to deliver and is going to be making a lot of control, structure figure’s wet dreams come true. And oligarchical tech is our biggest problem. They are the hugest monopoly. In essence, they’re allowed to buy up all rivals big and small with gas fields stock equity and debt provision so that they could actually go un-competed in continue to just grow market share without ever having to worry about delivering a profit.

You have Amazon that was able to trade profitless for an unenviable time and just keep reinvesting. If you run a restaurant and you can run ten years without making a profit, you can clean up a lot of your rivals on the high street by underpricing them, taking their place, expanding and going from a 100-seater to a 200-seater to a 250-seater. And they have to all pay tax at the end of the period. And we’ve allowed this entire oligarchical class. Tech and pharma are probably the two really dominant. Of course, the military-industrial complex isn’t new. It’s been there for a long time, but these have been the new prongs that have come to the fore.

This is the reset, and these are where some of the more dangerous that I see in terms of how our freedoms will be affected. In essence… You know I like motorcycles. I ride motorcycles not because I’m a great motorcyclist, but I enjoy the freedom of big, open spaces and going wherever I want and determining that direction. It’s one of the purest forms of freedom for me. And also being able to go swim and do various things when I want and not be told where to be, how to be attired, etc.

In other words, I’m very, what I call, the sigma male. Rather than people that think of themselves as alpha males, I don’t look to dominate anybody else. I don’t want a bunch of beaters trying to cuddle up to me because they think they’re going to pick up the scraps of girls or other social things. I just want to be allowed to roam the plains alone. And when I want to convolute with others, go hook up with a pack and then go roam the plains alone and have as few people dictating.

Unfortunately, I think, more and more, societies that are highly compliant are being developed. You mentioned Hong Kong in our pre-chat. Highly compliant to all the dictates. China, highly compliant. You’ve actually got Bill Gates saying America’s response has been poor, and they’re applauding China.

Essentially there are all these tacit Bolshevik encouragements, how cool communism is, but they don’t use that phrase because they know it’s got a bit of a tarnished reputation. You hear phraseology like “solidarity.” There’s a very cute Tweet going out of Chinese kids bouncing balls and going around and all of this and saying, “Look at how when it’s all for one instead of the individualism… Capitalism and individual is dead.” You’re going to hear all of this. And it turns into this whole, largely, what I would call Bolshevik Communism where people that don’t wear masks can be accused of killing all those that do, and individuality is under threat — greatly.

So that’s a lot of the reset, and it’s got a lot to do with general life and freedoms. Understanding that there is a reset and how you can exploit that and build wealth so that you can buy at least maybe some space where you can still retain some degree of freedom, because for now, the home is one of the rare places that you still have, largely, freedom, even though now police rights to just storm the place if you’re deemed a health risk. And all sorts of very, very dangerous acts now give para-statal enforcement agencies the right to literally come into your home.

Unfortunately, this is one of the things they say about South African upbringings. If you ask a South African a question, he might just tell you exactly what he thinks, and that makes for dangerous people. I’m not going to try to polish this turd and tell you it looks all grand and glorious.

Jay:  This is one of the reasons why I wanted to get you on the show, because you speak the truth. You speak your mind.

You’ve dropped a lot there on the big-picture stuff. Before we jump into that — I do want to spend a large portion of today’s talk on what’s going on right now because this is real. This is happening to everyone. But in order to provide you with the freedom that you have at this point, if we could just take a step back, and let’s talk about how you found the freedom and how you discovered your unique, proprietary Hunt Volatility Funnel Method of trading. How does that differ from traditional technical analysis? And potentially, how could that help some of our listeners that are interested in preparing for this dark cloud that’s coming over our heads, which will be the next section that we discuss on this podcast? I just wanted to take a quick step back and give us a little bit of background first.

Francis:  I agree. We need to talk about that part. Sometimes when I start off with that dystopian stuff, it’s to motivate people to wake up and to understand then the cure. And you’re saying, “What is the cure?” And my answer to the cure is the fact that you need to independent as much as is feasible in this new world order that they’re constructing here. And the best way to do that is to have real means.

In other words, your duty and job, more than any other era, is to build wealth. Build wealth not for the sake of money. I don’t lie on a stack of gold coins and throw them up in the air like Scrooge McDuck and things like that. It’s for the freedom it buys you. The freedom is what excites me and the lifestyle of design that you can self-dictate is what excites me. The wealth-building is one of the most useful tools to secure you that existence and lifestyle.

Stephen Covey was famous for saying, “Start with the end in mind.” The end in mind is I want an awesome lifestyle with lots of unrestricted freedoms. Okay, what do I need to do that in this current environment which is actually contra to exactly those goals?

Well, if you have some stuff-off money, you can buy a tract of land that you can own. You can do whatever you want. You can do a motorcycle track in the back garden if you like. I think that one racer, Valentino Rossi, he has a dirt-bike track in a place where he test. I’m being ridiculous here. I’m not saying that serious.

But the point is that when you have means, you can certainly buy the nature. You can certainly guild the nest or the cage, if we’re to call it a cage, far better than those that won’t. And recognizing that this is a hugely polarizing event, the goal is to flatten SMEs, small- and medium-sized enterprises so that these essentially get subsumed by the oligarchical class that they’ve created in all areas. So we have a one-world beer company. We have one-world tech in various parts of it, etc., etc.

And your goal is to survive that process and to be wealthy and self-actualizing in it.

Actually there are a lot of opportunities that get created by this particular game that they’re playing because if you understand that game, you know how asset prices should be moving and in what manner they will be moving, and you can go express that in a leveraged sense still because we still have our retail accounts. We can still trade. There are still places where you can get higher than normal leverage, and we’ve found some of those partnerships, and we’ve brought them to our community and even to our YouTube channel following. That’s the game.

And now you’ve got to start making decisions. This brings us to, okay, on what basis do you make decisions?

By force of necessity in many years, chasing the fast money, I regularly undid my slow money and ended up with no money. So I realized that actually we need three parts. We need your slow dough for when the fast dough and the medium-quick dough go wrong.

Jay:  So this is like your wealth generation framework basically.

Francis:  100%. Think of three layers to a pyramid where the capstone is at the top, and that’s the ultimate goal of wealth, and it’s gold-plated. You actually can’t levitate that in the air. You need that foundation, that long, broad step and then that medium step that is not quite as broad but goes one up so that your capstone can sit on top. So you have those three layers.

The bottom step is investment. That is unleveraged investment. That means you’ve got money enough. For many people, they’re not making money. They bypass the investment step and the moderate-leverage step, and they go into high-leverage where they can trade fast and furious on the basis that fast money is made but without realizing that as fast as you make it, one mistake can break it.

In fact, even if you get nine calls right in a row, the tenth can take you to zero. Pretty sobering.

Jay:  Yeah. And there is no time like the present where this is so pertinent with people on RobinHood trading these FANG stocks or people in crypto trying to chase the next Altcoin. So this is the easiest, lowest barrier to entry. People like to go in and make a quick win.

Francis:  Correct. There are many people that are going to have a fast and furious rollercoaster ride and end up back at the bottom getting out, no better or thin before. Despite what heights they scaled, they’re going to get out where they got in, which is with probably not very much money, and they’re going to pay for that experience.

Without the principles of three degrees of engagement, the hot pot absolutely where there is high leverage involved requires high conviction, real method, which most people are not equipped to have. So I often repeat, you have to earn the right to leverage. These people that are going straight in on a Bitmix account and putting all their Bitcoin in a BitMix account are on a short fuse to a blow-up. They’ve got to first show that they’ve invested correctly, then that they’ve traded with 3X and 5X-type leverage — sort of old-school FINEX if you’re in the crypto realm.

 

If you’re talking in traditional markets — as you mentioned, I’m broad. I’m un-siloed. I don’t have a siloed view of the world. I have a macro view of a machine where there are all inter-operable parts that all interact on each other, and the movement of one handle on one side of the machine turns a few cogs that can actually have a significant effect on something that supposedly is being treated in a siloed way.

Everybody likes to compartmentalize and box-drop and have a lot of boxes, and they’re dropping shoes and underpants in the shoes and underpants box, and I argue that that’s the wrong approach.

Actually, you have a complex machinery, and this whole global system is this spluttering diesel engine with carburetors and cylinders and all sorts of things and handles in various turning points. That’s the way to view it. And certainly effects done in one place does have knock-on effects in others.

Many people have thought for a while that crypto is entirely divorced and uncorrelated and in its realm and then had a crypto box, for example. We’ve shown that having a 360-degree view and understanding what the dollar does and is doing is quite useful to know in a crypto long or short environment or biasing.

There is a lot that I had to learn. I had to learn that your slow dough is your big dough, and you need tax down. You should aim to build the greatest foundation because a moderately good house on solid foundations sees you through the way. Trying to build an absolute gem palace on the beach because you thought that early-doors stuff of doing foundational work doesn’t really apply is a collapsing home that is overcapitalized and a complete failure where everything is lost.

So you need the investment. You need the moderate leverage, and you need to trickle down by taxing out. So the goal is always to expand your investment portfolio, not the scale of your trading account.

Most people come into trading and say, “I want my high-leveraging account just to keep going up.”

Well, that’s one of the most dangerous places to build money.

Jay:  When you say “tax down,” you’re basically saying you compound your wealth in your investment pot and not in your higher-leveraged trading accounts. That’s not where you sit and—

Francis:  You may make outlier gains, as we have been lucky enough to do on numerous occasions by virtue of the quality of the Hunt Volatility Funnel Method in specific events that can accelerate your investment gains, providing you’ve learned the method, you’ve developed a skill, you have the patience and the real sense for the timing. And that’s why the method is focused on bringing you to a key point where there’s going to be an explosive move in the expected direction where you can have a highly expanded reward against a very tight stop. That way you can not lose your shirt, and you can size for a loss, and money management principles can be applied.

So a stop is known in advance of the entry. The entry is not at market. It’s at a triggering level that shows that the market is now beginning its expansive phase after an extreme low-volatility phase because, like the tide, the tide goes in, and it always comes back.

In the same way, volatility dissipates slowly but returns with a bang. Unlike the tide, the water fills up as fast as it drains away. The difference in volatility as a tide is that it drains away slowly, and then suddenly you get a tidal wave hit you, and then it drains away slowly, and you’re swamped. It drains away slowly, and then suddenly out of nowhere, a tidal wave hits you.

That is the nature of markets. And it’s the gift. It’s a massive gift because you get an explosive move in your favor if you get the key moment correct. And if it’s extremely low volatility, the distance to being wrong can be made very short and very small. And that’s the nature of the Hunt Volatility Funnel Method.

When two of those words are about volatility, the ironing out of volatility and its sudden return, and the “funnel” is in reference to, those of you that have made a protein shake — and there many a male audience in the trading community, although I’m not saying that should be that way, and I’m delighted to have the small number of ladies we do — but if you make protein shakes, you have a funnel, and it starts wide and then it pinches once, it pinches again, and then it gets to quite a thin tube that actually does the job and gets the powder into the thin-neck bottle for you to then shake up.

So the volatility and the funneling are the reward, and that is where the method focus comes.

What precedes that, again, we’re referring to Covey, is beginning with how did I discover HVF, which was part of your question, is I kept seeing highly expansive moves and saying, “I wish I was in that before that happened.” Because basically that’s what everybody thinks.

And what ends up happening is most people are momentum chasers. They wish they were in that before that happened. They see it happening, and then they chase it. In other words, they are always too late. They’re jumping in once the volatility has already expanded. Any plausible stop has to be miles away because they only feel conviction once they see something is happening.

Psychology we are risk-averse. What actually happens is you should be pro-risk, otherwise you shouldn’t be taking trades.

I work on the basis that nothing is happening now, but there is a decent chance, given the structure that’s already set up that in some time in a not-too-far-away future, something quite dramatic will happen. And that’s when I’m setting my traps.

Everybody else wants the certainty of “It’s happening.” I say “everybody else,” I’m just characterizing. Obviously, our community and many professional traders have great methods and other methods, etc. So not everybody is a RobinHood newbie. But the point is too many people chase momentum. That’s like dogs chasing cars. And then when the dog stops, they don’t know what to do. They get all vexed, and they turn and go away.

In other words, they haven’t got the courage to trade to the level, and they haven’t got the courage to precede something. You need to be early to get the risk-reward ratio. That means you have to have identified the DNA that often occurs before highly volatile expansionary breakouts.

So I started looking at what happened before, which most people don’t do, and I started working back. I then identifed that there is, in fact, a regular pattern DNA that occurs prior to a major expansive event. And you should be interested prior to all of that happening, and we spend most of our time looking at things that have not broken but suggest they may at a future point break.

So we embrace the futurist element and the risk element.

Jay:  Yeah. The two most challenging parts, like you said, let’s say “Mr. Market,” using that old term, and this goes for technical trading or even if you’re a fundamental — I come from a fundamental background — it’s the same thing. People want to be validated by the market. They want to buy high and sell higher. So they’re chasing momentum like you said.

But I think the hardest thing for me as an investor, over the years my experience was basically confusing activity for achievement — that sort of thing where you feel like you have to be doing something. You have to be in the market. You have to be trading, otherwise you’re not making progress. So the hardest thing is having that patience.

Francis:  Can I sidebar you there? That’s such a valid point. We actually created a phrase for that very concept. It’s a psychological thing. And until you go around and toe-tag all the things that trip you up and really understand them — and you have to name them — we call that compulsion. In other words, it’s not work unless you’re trading. That’s wrong. Our view is “Don’t just do something. Sit there.” It’s the whole Ronald Reagan, just stand there. The whole thing is observation and waiting for the right moment. And hence why we also utilize the sniper doctrine.

I will return to you, but I’ll just give you the small stats fact that many people don’t know. Most infantrymen, the aggregate in WWII was 200,000 rounds fired for every fatality, in other words, enemy taken out.

In Vietnam, that rose to 450,000. Add a jungle and automatic weapons, and that’s just a whole bunch of extra lead the taxpayers have paid a whole bunch for that are embedded in tree bark somewhere in Southeast Asia.

Jay:  Wait a minute. What was the number again?

Francis:  450,000 rounds were fired for every individual in the Vietnam War for every one.

Jay:  What? Wow.

Francis:  That is how inefficient infantrymen are. And I know this from being a soldier, by the way.

Jay:  That’s incredible.

Francis:  The number is absurd. Most civilians are as stunned by this as you are. In the WWII, it was 200,000 because you had more bolt-action rifles. It takes more time. No automatic fire, or not as much automatic firing weapons for the infantrymen. And preferably you aimed first before you shot. So you threw the lead down in the general direction of somebody, and that’s 200,000 rounds fired.

Actually infantrymen make a bunch of noise and say, “Go away. Don’t come anywhere near us. There could be a chance you might get injured, and we’re going to hold this space. And until we leave, don’t come here.”

That’s kind of what happened in Vietnam. They would take a hill and then the minute they left, for Vietnamese would take it back. So they’d make a bunch of noise, stamp their feet, shoot automatic weapons in the trees.

The numbers for a sniper is 1.3 rounds fired for every one fatality.

Jay:  Much more efficient.

Francis:  I read the book on sniping, and those stats came straight out of that book. And the whole concept is this guy doesn’t shoot at all often. He only shoots if he is almost assured in his mind he has the cleanest of kill shots straight through the middle of the head.

Jay:  Right.

Francis:  He’s specifically trained to do exactly that. While infantrymen, you’re trained to do a lot of fire and movement, get some rounds down to keep heads down on the enemy so that your next man running next to you can run in the clear. Make a bit of noise, throw a bit of lead, and keep some heads down.

The sniper is not. The sniper is a killing machine of ruthless efficiency in comparison. And the special forces and even the snipers themselves were resented by their own infantrymen because their own infantrymen so hated the snipers of the enemy, and they had high-rank, and they often did reconnaissance and other wait-and-watch jobs. So they were special forces. Our Recces could all shoot, and they could shoot most weapons, and they were highly proficient.

So reconnaissance, most of the time you’re just standing there, which is why I interjected. And I apologize, but it’s a really important analogy because these analogies bring home the truth of trading powerfully.

I’m taking risk. I just want to not be in the game most of the time until all the things I require are present. And then I’m going to be in the game big. Because a sniper, his weapon throws faster, harder, and a bigger chunk of lead. Whatever it hits, it removes. Some people will say, “Yeah, because they also shoot a longer distance.” That’s true. But that’s become more of a thing recently with the big 50-cal weapons and all of that.

Snipers, it’s about accuracy. You can still snipe a hundred years. You don’t ever try to shoot somebody a kilometer away. You can snipe from 250 years, and they remain unseen. They don’t show their hand. They wait. They breathe. They pause. Everything is about the shot, and they don’t shoot infantrymen. They shoot high-value targets.

So by the time you break cover, make it for a good reason when you enter into the foray. That means you’re shooting a captain, a major, maybe even a general. And you’re changing courses of wars with single shots rather than you’ve just reduced their one million men on the ground to 999,999 and another 10,000 are on a plane to come over. That’s quite attritional and not highly significant to shoot an infantryman.

If you apply that to your trading — and these are three rules that I’ll add that supplement this analogy that will be very, very powerful — if you do these for your listeners that think, “Okay, Francis, I don’t have the kind of money to do your course. Give me three things I should never do that’s going to take me in the direction so that maybe I can earn my way in time,” I would say cut your number of trades you take by three. And I truly could make that number ten.

If you’re trading 30 times a month — and you need to take six months, aggregate it, average it — cut it in three. That means you’ve just got much less bullets. You start the week. You were trading ten trades a week. Now you’ve got three.

If you put three trades out on Monday and the best trades show up on Thursday, you can’t have it.

The quality of life and the quality of the decisions you make are all determined by the qualify of the questions you ask yourself and the disciplines you impose upon yourself.

I’m going to say that one again.

The quality of your life — and that’s in everything you do, trading, everything — is going to be determined by the quality of the questions you ask yourself.

If you say, “Why me?” When I trade doesn’t work, bad quality question, crap answer. I’m aware I’ve got bad fashion sense. That’s the reason why you lost your trade. You need to ask the right questions, and you need also to impose the right disciplines on yourself.

For those listening to this, I am saying to you specifically to go and grab your last six months of trade records. Count how many trades you do. Aggregate that. Don’t include a month that you’re on a holiday as that distorts the stats. Get an accurate six months that you’ve done. Work out how many times you’re trading a week, and now you want to count out. If you have to buy bullets to do this, I want one-third of the amount. And every time you place a trade that is filled, you take one of those rounds away, and you’ve got less ammo for the week.

That’s lesson number one. Do that and guess what happens. The volume goes down. The quality goes up. The volume goes down; the quality up.

Somewhere in you there is something that says, “Hang on. I have to stop and think about this. And now I’m not putting that impulsive trade on. And now that I look at it, actually the dollar might be going up. I don’t know if oil-long is the best trade. All the other things aren’t necessarily aligned for what I’m thinking of doing. I’ll just sit back and see how this pans out.” And you stop using a round that you would have normally used. And you stop harvesting a loss that you normally would have lost.

So you start reducing losses first. That’s part of the game of staying in the game. The biggest part of the game is in the beginning to stay in the game. You reduce losses by doing less and assessing more.

Then you start finding criteria that deliver a favorable outcomes. That’s the hard part, and that’s the development of Hunt Volatility Funnel Method that I described in that earlier segue. And that’s where you start to get highly expansive, positive risk rewards up to double digits. We’ve yet to land a triple digit, but we’ve landed a 62.5 risk-reward. That means I bought 62.5 new bullets for the one bullet I risked in that shot. In other words, I shot an ammo truck, and I walked off with an entire three cases of ammo with 20 rounds in each.

That’s the kind of shots you want to be doing. You don’t do those every day. But even getting a five-to-one means you replenish the bullet you used and you have four new. So that’s the goal. That’s why we trade high-reward-low-risk.

So you’ve got one rule so far. I’ll give you the other two rules.

Never enter the market on a market order. Never enter at market.

Here’s what happens when we enter at market. First thing, it’s usually impulsive, and the thing is switching and starting to move and you drop to a lower time frame and you think, “That’s it. It’s the moment. The moment is now.” I can tell you rarely is the moment now.

That’s why our entire methodology is tripwire. The way you catch a bear is you don’t run around looking to catch a bear and chase him now. You ain’t going to find him because he’s going to hear you running long before. He’s going to be hear klunk, klunk charging around the place, running around, and he’s going to stay out of the way if he thinks you’re a danger.

You go to where the bears go, the high probability areas where the deer are by the water where he drinks and hunts, where he’s walked before. Previous price behavior has shown these footprints in the sand. You go in between the two trees, and you set your bear trap there, and then you go and you leave him to do what he does, and you accept that you don’t control the point at which he’ll make that revisit for a drink of water and hunger again but that, at some point, it will happen.

That’s high-probability trading where you recognize that which you control and that which you don’t. And you set traps and tripwires. You don’t chase.

And this we learn from game viewing in South Africa in the Kruger Park. Most people, it’s an institution. Everyone goes to the Kruger Park to see the lions and the rhinos. They drive around in their cars in the heat of the day with their air con on, and many times they don’t see nearly as much as they’d like.

And then there is 9% of the people that get up real early before sunrise, and they even make special lunch packs in the huts that you stay in, in the hotels for those people, and often bird watchers and specialist games viewers. And they’re out in the cool morning by the watering holes. And they’re sitting still, and they hide because there are one or two places where you can get in and hide. They see incredible things. They see cheetahs catching deer by the water. They go to high-probability locations. They shut their gob because there is a whole protocol in the hide. If someone goes in there, you don’t play music, have your mobile device and call your auntie and do all of that stuff. They are serious bird watchers. They have their book, their goggles, and they don’t even speak to each other. They talk in very, very hushed tones, and they duck down, and they go behind a wall.

This is the difference between specialists and tourists. Are you a trading tourist just driving through, paying for a bit of entertainment, or are you aiming to make a business out of this? And if you’re in the latter, you’ve to realize that you’ve got to develop specialist skills. You’ve got to go to the high-probability locations, and you’ve got to sit and wait. Just because you showed up doesn’t mean they are contractually obligated to throw opportunity at your feet. You’ve got to stand and observe. And that’s when the nature starts.

I was bored out of my skull when my dad would take me to these places. I couldn’t think of anything more boring than staring at the bush for a while. You know what ends up happening? You slow down. Your whole wired nature is you slow down. You start breathing and just looking.

And suddenly I started to see small movements, like a glow-worm on a branch. And then I started to see in the bush. And amazingly, there is game everywhere. Everywhere. But when you’re driving 60 kilometers per hour staring out your window on a tarmac road making a big-ass noise, you’re not seeing anything and scaring everything away.

But the minute you start integrating and taking on the bushveld and calming the hell down and observing with binoculars and naked eyes, you start seeing. And that’s what everybody needs to do in the market.

And it’s not the trading. Everybody thinks trader is the order entry. The order entry is like an admin clock filing documents in doing a business deal. That’s how significant the order entry is.

That doesn’t mean you can get in wrong and you must cock it up. It just means in terms of whether you make money or not, it’s about as significant as the guy that does the paperwork for a business that’s being concluded — filing invoices. It’s absolutely administrative. It’s go chunk-chunk-chunk on your keyboard. Do that. Do that. It shouldn’t be a challenge for you after you’ve been trading for more than a short while.

All the work is everything that happens before that which is the observation, the assessment, the 360-degree analysis, the pattern, the volume by price, the relative strength, is it being accumulated, the trend, time frame — because you know, having become a student of ours, we look at the trend view, we look at the super macro view. Are we at extreme overvalued, extreme undervalued? We want to know exactly where we are on the map across all time frames so that we can choose those really unique opportunities.

We’ve given you one. That is cut your training to just one-third. We’ve said to never enter on a market order. So what you should be doing is setting tripwires. Rarely is now the moment. Recognize when the key level that indicates some form of expansion that highlights that there is a new impetus moving in the direction that you have a hunch from your other analysis it should do, and then have yourself be entered.

Most of my best entries are taking place while I’m not watching.

Jay:  Yes. This is a key point as well. You’ve used the term before “lifestyle trader.” Like you said, entering the order, as human beings, we’re emotional, and there is also a narrative. You watch the financial news, and you see these traders glued to their screens all the time. The market pulse. Always busy. And the markets are busy — ding, ding, ding — gotta do something. Gotta do something. Gotta trade. Gotta trade.

But like you said, that is literally the very, very last admin part of it. All the work… And there is lot of work. There is a significant amount of work that needs to be done prior to trade entry, but it should be done prior to trade entry, and it should all be set up in a manner that you teach in your course.

This is probably the hardest thing. I know from personal experience that I struggle with this time and time again. I’ve been an investor for 20 years now, coming up from more of a fundamental side, but still I catch myself because the market draws you in and it makes you feel like “I’ve got to be in this.” New flow is always in your face, and it’s a battle. It’s a constant battle for me. It’s something I haven’t mastered yet fully, but I still strive to do it.

But I think that the framework that you’ve set up is very clear, and it’s a very clear way for someone to take the steps that they need to. And if they just follow the protocol that you lay out, you can actually have a very high chance of success.

Francis:  That’s a good comment.

Jay:  So one and two you’ve given us. What’s the third quick tip for the audience?

Francis:  I loved what you said, and I’ll lead on to the third. Essentially, the market is like a seductress trying get you to cheat on your wife. I often refer to the mechanical bull and say that you’ve got to stay in process, and there is a mechanical bull that keeps trying to toss you off. You’ve got to have a process, first of all, and have it developed. And then adhering to it is like reading the mechanical bull.

And the market is a seductress when you’re passive. It absolutely wants you in the game, and there are all sorts of biological elements that occur that are adrenal, endorphinic, risk-based activities make you feel alive — all of these elements. And these things are dopamine dumping into the back of your brain encouraging activity.

In fact — certain things we’ve discussed, it’s probably my next level to do with students but it requires a bit of investment — you almost need rear mirrors on your screens and a glass mirror behind you so that you can watch your own back and your own head from behind so that you become familiar with your own presence because what you are beginning to describe shows your level of development. You were saying that you have to catch yourself. So you’ve already developed an awareness of self in that you’ve had to, a couple of times, step outside of yourself and rein yourself back in. And you almost need that astral self that comes out of the crown of your head that is standing behind you watching yourself.

What typically happens when people are getting excited or amped by the market is you start to tense your shoulder, your heart rate goes up — so heart-rate monitors, rear-view mirrors where you can see the back of your own body, and you can see tension creeping into your shoulders. In other words, your shoulders aren’t hanging. Just move your head left and right now and hang them down so that they’re pulling. You’re not tensing your traps. This is all adrenal, and this is you bracing for fight and flight.

And fight and flight is the worst blue-printed coding for trading success. Fight or flight has you preparing for the saber-toothed tiger at the cave entrance where you either go full out on death-do-you-part aggression or you run in fear for your absolute life and try to climb a tree. Neither of those coding imprints are good for your trading at all. You have to come out of the rational executive center of your brain.

The fight-and-flight response is the quickest response. Why? Because it’s designed to protect you from threats. So before you get to rationally think about your trades, you already are getting adrenal fight-or-flight responses, which is you saying how you’re catching yourself and reining it back. So people have to appreciate that.

Long before you get into the executive center, the first response is the wrong response, and don’t call it your gut and all of this business-deal nonsense. It’s your adrenal fight-and-flight response.

So that leads into the third aspect. This aspect is almost like an administrative chore that slows you down and forces you to get into your executive center.

The third key point… We’ll recap. Number one is cut your trading and volume by three. Divide by three.

Number two was never at market. Set limits and buy stop orders. And that’s for both your take profit, your entry, and your stop loss. So the entire trade can be represented, and you hit the nail on the head when I brought it lifestyle trader. How else can you go on a golf course? You’ve got to have something that takes you out if you’re wrong, otherwise you’ll be crapping yourself if you’ve gone for a big trade where you’ve taken a fairly meaty-size loss but you think it’s going to move in your favor.

And then the third point is know your full risk-reward ratio prior to order entry. Don’t say, “Oh, I’ll calculate that later. I’ve just got to get in now. It’s running. I know this is a good one.” No.

What does this do? It gives you admin and math to do, and it gives you more technical assessment to do. Rarely is now the moment, but people will convince themselves, and the lizard brain, the adrenal responses will say, “Just get in there. You know you want to be b long. This is going to go up. We’ll work it all out later. It’s fine. You’ve just got to run. It’s just going to cost you more later.”

These impulses are the lizard brain which have to be fought back. The monkey brain. There’s a book on the monkey mind as well, which I read, all touching on similar things.

The minute you have to do the math and you have to say, “At what point do I accept I am wrong?” this immediately engages the scientific, seek-to-disprove element of the brain. So now I have to look at that thing that I wanted to marry you were so hot for it and say, “How does this screw me?” And for those thinking of a woman right now, you’re bad, bad, bad. But for the ladies, it’s the same for the men. How does this relationship go wrong?

And in the charts, you have to do the exact same thing. What is a scenario where does exactly the opposite and hurts me? And that thought process is what we do in HVF Method, the Hunt Volatility Funnel Method. How does this go wrong?

Boom — it goes wrong by potentially doing this. That could be a bearish situation. “No, do it, find it.” And you go in the straight, the worst thing that could happen to you.

That suddenly kills some of that excitement, tames some of the rationality, and keeps you in mindset of “There is no absolute. You can always be potentially wrong,” and gets you to start saying, “on balance of probabilities” instead of saying, “I believe the market is going up.”

We kill that word “believe.” It’s a non utilizable word. Beliefs are that things that you’re usually injected with, inoculated with as a child, whether it’s religion, whether it’s the tooth fairy and Santa Clause, these things are unrationalized to the fullest degree and are injected in you. And if you can’t particularly question them, then it’s a belief. And you can’t rationalize logically somebody out of something if he wasn’t logically rationalized into it because he clearly doesn’t have the capacity to deal with that topic in a rational manner. If it’s a belief system he’s never questioned, you will never question him out of it. It’s like trying to convince a Jew that Christianity is the real god or a Muslin convincing a Christian that… It’s just not going to happen. You won’t find many people that go, “You know what, what’s a good point. I think I’m going to switch sides.” No, it doesn’t happen.

So these are the concepts of belief systems. They’ve very powerful in religions and other areas. So my whole concept is have no beliefs about what things… Beliefs are things that become part of your DNA and who you are. You can’t break your DNA out and remove them. The minute you use the word “I believe that’s going to go up,” that means you’ve made it ego-invested, and it’s who you are, and now you’ve got to fight it, and it will stop you from recognizing that it’s going wrong, and you’ll buy more time and take bigger losses to try to give it more rope to turn the corner so that you don’t have to admit that your belief was incorrect.

So avoid the ego investment. We don’t talk about right or wrong. We talk about accurate and inaccurate. If you’re a sniper, you’re either accurate or you’re inaccurate. Although should you be shooting someone through the head, that’s a different question. That might be something around right or wrong. I don’t know. But there’s accurate, and there’s inaccurate. And in trading, that’s what you should seek to be. Seek to be more accurate, and do not believe anything.

And the unbalance of probabilities following the detailed assessment and the point at which I would accept I’m wrong is here, and that gets you thinking in a manner that highlights “Wow, this could go against me.” And that tames the adrenal junkie that wants to go large and make a million bucks, the Ferrari-trade syndrome. There’s quite a bit in that.

If you know your risk-reward before, you’ve got to know where you accept you’re wrong, which is your stop loss. That should be the technical level at a horizontal level that is a price-based point that if it goes to there, on balance of probabilities, you’re more likely to be wrong than you were to be right. And you have your level there to confirm that it’s moving in a direction that you expect it. That triggers you in. That’s your tripwire long if it’s a long, and it can be short as well. It’s in either direction.

And you have a target at which you say, you know what, this is delivered on contract, and I’m closing the bulk or the whole. And in most instances, it’s the whole for us, but we have a few unique criteria, which you’ll be familiar with, where we’ll allow for overperformance. And we have real theory, and only if those theories apply do you still retain some in.

That is the cornerstone of money management.

And so many people think money management is just management of losses. It’s management of everything. It’s management of sizing. It’s management of profit, and it’s management of losses. And nobody else talks about profit management as part of money management. We’re the only ones that I know that does that. And we have an intricate focus on risk-reward, and we include time. RRR divide T. How fast might it get there? And we even know where we’re expecting greater speed of performance. Plus we have interim targets, as you’re aware, which point to a place where it might be emotionally difficult for you at that level after being run because a pull-back is potentially to be expected.

Now I don’t know many methods that do all those things. If your listeners can follow those three rules, they’ll start walking towards us.

Jay:  Thank you so much for giving us those three rules as a freebie. You actually give a lot of content for free, which we’re very grateful for. Anyone that’s listening, if you go to any of Francis’ YouTube channels, he does live streams at least once a week or so. Just very, very giving and generous with the knowledge.

Having become a student of Francis, I would highly recommend checking out the program, the MarketSniper.com. We’ll have all the links down below if they want to inquire further.

So I wanted to leave a little bit of time at the end of our chat here, Francis, to circle back to where we started. Not to go again dark and dystopian, but this is the reality. I think that the HVF Methodology can potentially be a very useful tool for people in this next stage of where we are.

So I want to take a step back and go big-picture macro. We’re going to talk a little bit of reset in the few minutes we have remaining. And you made mention to late-stage, end-of-cycle. I think that everyone at this point who follows my channel knows what’s going on in the markets, this money printing that’s going on. You had a very extremely thoughtful and thought-provoking discussion recently with Brent Johnson on the Dollar Milkshake Theory. I’ll link that below as well. I highly recommend anyone listening to go watch that interview which was excellent.

Can you give us your framework right now? What’s the framework you’re working under for the next two to five years? How are things going to play out? We have a number of things happening. The US elections are coming up. We have this incredible increasing amount of debt. We have COVID that came in and rocked everyone’s world, and we have all these assets floating around and potential opportunities to capitalize off of.

At the same time, we have this growing populism that comes usually at the end of cycles and this bifurcation between the haves and the have-nots, and it’s putting us in a very precarious situation where we need to make sure that we end up on the right side of history, if it were, whenever this thing shakes out. So give us your framework here and how you see things playing out, and then perhaps you could give us a few tips or potential opportunities that we should be looking for that could help us during this transition phase.

 

Francis:  Yeah. The next five years, if I just even look at the next few months, the one thing that we said, because I was suspicious with ebola and bird flu and all of these cycles before we got to this big run-for-it pandemic where they’ve really gone for this escalation of control over citizenry and compliance. As you might know, I think it’s massively over-hyped, overreactive. That’s not to say there haven’t been people that have caught a nasty coronavirus, flu, and may have even passed from it. We’ve had bad flu seaons before. I’m not going to get into the whole medical — there are so many internet medical heroes now, but I don’t plan to be one of them.

But we’re all heard and seen more things and think we’re experts now. We’re not. But overall, it seems to be that there has certainly been some laboratory tinkering to these things and that there has been some meddling with natural forces.

When I first came out, we said this won’t be the only time when they said they would do a lockdown. This, unfortunately, is a bit of what they’re calling now a “new normal.” There is no new normal. There is normal and abnormal and people messing with you, and my worldview. Unfortunately, this escalation seems to have succeeded in terms of getting compliance from everybody, and the nationstates have all bought into this transnational world health, world economic forum and other institutions as well as Tony Blair and Bill Gates’ institutes. I think they’re going to escalate this with this Northern Hemisphere winter.

The bulk of the population are in the Northern Hemisphere. They brought this about on the tail end of the Northern Hemisphere winter. The lockdown started in March. It stuck it’s head above the ground in February. We’d, incidently, called for single-digit oil. We’d seen it in the charts, which is the most amazing thing because we didn’t know there was going to be a plandemic coming about. We called for single-digit oil, and we called for cruise liners to collapse immensely, CCL. We called for Plains All American Pipelines to collapse by 85%. We made a whole bunch of technical analysis calls. This is the amazing thing about chart-based patterns.

Jay:  Based on the HVF metholodology.

Francis:  Yeah. If you weren’t on HVF Trader, you’re not seeing these things, I’m afraid. Sorry. Based on HVF methodology… Single-digit oil was a ridiculous call to make, and I stood on a stage in front of thousands of people and said it. I reiterated it n February, and the big theme of that trade was long gold, short oil. If you want to be commodity-neutral, you should be long gold, short oil in February. We’d said that already on YouTubes before that in ’19, but that was the last staged public appearance of which the entire clip and presentation is still available. You need to be aggressively long gold and aggressively short oil, and I made my statement a little bit more measured because it was highly public.

I said that people are underpricing the probability of single-digit oil, but in the community, I was expecting single-digit oil, and I just stated it to be more palatable because it was such an extreme thing. Even though I felt it, I didn’t want to say, “Guys, we’re going to single-digit oil.” Oil was trading 63, $65. The last single-digit oil was in the 1970s, so it was an absurd comment. It ended up calling COVID-19 without us knowing it.

So we’re famous for the news before the news. We get to trade, and we get the headline later in the newspaper. We didn’t know that there was a plandemic. We didn’t know that Carnival Cruiseliner just can’t function with people in close quarters. We felt that there was something tying them all in together, but I hadn’t had the time and the imagination to read it. And I’m almost thinking I missed something there. As a futurist, I should have seen that and joined all the dots. But anyway, there is only so much time you have to dedicate to any one particular trading theme, and I didn’t join that thought.

With that, once they’ve introduced this draconian power, unfortunately, they don’t give this up, guys, once they’ve got it. I’m sorry to say it.

We’re coming into Northern Hemisphere winter early if they’re going to bring it on sooner. So I kind of made the call that most people will be locked down over Christmas and New Year, which I piss a lot of people off, I think, and will also be a new level of test of how compliant people will be.

Because it’s a cold climate, it’s a little bit easier in the Northern Hemisphere for it to do, but they’re going to implement, as they did in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand as well, no doubt, and Latin America and various other places with varying degrees of severity. So we will have mark two, in my view. That was always the plan, and I, in previous YouTubes, mark one was only just announced. I actually said there will be three or more, and it may even become something in perpetuity until such time as everybody has succeeded to their wishes, which is to allow them to put vaccination of whatever concoction they have created, which is probably already in existence. Never mind this “Oh, we’re in the vaccination-creation phase, and we’re testing now.” They know what they wanted to do, and they’ve had their cocktail ready for a while, in my view personally. But this is all about pre-planning. You just have to go google Agenda 201, or DuckDuckGo it rather than google it and you’ll see that they’re actually drilling.

Every time a false flag of some form, there is always drill prior. It’s a standard procedure. So the whole Agenda 201, and then they even dealt with how they’ll deal with people that call them out for B.S., conspiracy theorists, and they’ll classify us all as fake news and all of that.

Anyway, so without getting too much into that, three and more in perpetuity until everyone has complied and then forced compliance on a minority once they’ve got everybody on the bus because you won’t, if you’ve had a vaccine, fight for my right to refuse it. You’ll think, “Stuff that. If I’ve been done…”

This is, unfortunately, the crabs-in-the-back-of-the-bucket syndrome. All people that are being slave-ruled will keep each other in prison rather than cooperating to help some escape. So crabs could form a little castle, and the top crab could climb out. No, they keep pulling each other back into the bucket. So they will get those that mask-up and vaccine-up to hate on and say those that don’t are actually risking their lives. Meanwhile, they’re exercising their freedoms in a free world.

And they say they’re going to escalate solidarity talk and all-for-one-none-for-all, which all sounds very good on the surface, but this is an on-ramp for Bolshevik communism. In other words, guys, we’ve got to do this because it’s good for everyone. You’ve got to give up. You’ve got to give up.

Wait till they come for your money and say, “You should hand in your gold and your silver because we’re recreating a currency that will be fairer and better for everyone.”

The same crooks and frauds that ran the previous frauds and crooked scheme and kept you as a slave are now going to change scheme. They’re going to change ponies once the old one have died that they’ve just about ridden into the ground, and they’re going to now tell you, “No, no, no. This time will be different.”

And because you’ve only lived one generation and you haven’t seen the full cycle, in your naivete and will to be an optimist, you’ll turn on your fellow man who is a critical thinker, and you’ll do what your slave masters say. That’s, unfortunately, going to happen.

You’re going to have to decide who you’re going to associate with. Are you going to associate with “woke” people, BLM woke, and new world communism woke? Or are you going to associate with libertarian freedom seekers? I’ve made my choices, and I’m for freedom, and I’m not for global governments. I never have been, and I never will be. I’m pretty fixed about that.

So that means you have to think about where do you end up spending the rest of your life if you’re not going to have freedom of movement. And how do you buy your way into an existing lifestyle that is going to be somewhat satisfying for all your key interests, space, and do you want to have lots of neighbors, or do you want to be semi-isolated?

I don’t want lots of neighbors. I don’t want to be in rioting areas. There’s Black Lives Matters walking through Portland suburbs now and chanting and f**k-ons and you all have to come out, and all of this nonsense out there. I don’t want the Bolsheviks’ useful idiots in the streets outside my house pissing me off. I’d be tempted to shoot on them. That’s not a good environment. It might provoke my emotional responses for a bit of feedback and headcount. You don’t want to get dragged into brawls.

Get yourself, in my opinion, for me, this is my solution, semi-remote where you can be close to farmers and supply chain and create agreements and know you’ll get local and get community support of like-minded.

I actually did a Reset Sniper… Thanks for shouting out the three channels. It’s the Reset Sniper, the Crypto Sniper, and the Market Sniper. Those are the three channels. On the Reset Sniper, I said the five new commandments for people that are awake, what you have to do. You have a cull the morons. You’ve got to stop trying to wake up people that are going to hate on you in a while. They’re going to be taught to hate on you.

The conspiracy theory is people that don’t wear masks are out to kill the ones that do. That’s the new conspiracy theory. Or who don’t take vaccines are out to make sure that those that do still get sick, although the vaccine is supposed to work. They’ve never explained that one to me, but anyway… That’s what’s coming.

They’re going to teach the compliant to hate on the problematic. It’s Divide & Conquer 101, and it’s coming.

In terms of reset, you’ve got some prep to do. You need to surround yourself with like-minded really awake people, and you need to get a community going, and you need to speak about who you are and identify people that are similar to you.

And I call it throw out the IQ test. Send a YouTube clip of something that’s a little bit… If the people go, “Oh, that’s nonsense. It’s all conspiracy theory.” Block and avoid. You need to cut the clutter of people that are dumb, unquestioning, and are going to entirely roll over for global new world government regardless of what they inject in you and regardless of what they demand. Because those are the useless sheep that are part of the problem.

If we had a third of the global population but they were all fiercely independent, these guys wouldn’t be getting away what they’re doing. The useful idiots are the 95% sleepers, and you need to just cut them out, and you need to cut them out with disdain. Don’t be rude, but just cut them out like you’re cutting a rotten limb off without explanation, because they will be coming after you with great disdain in time if you stay in touch with them and saying, “Yeah, you’re one of these Nazis, tin-foil hats.” They will be coming.

There is a real social survival aspect to this. You have to have prep that you’ve done on all levels. Clean water, food supply, space. Get a bigger property with a proper garden. Grow your own stuff. Get local with your farmer. Get known to your police. Be cooperative but maintain your values so that you’re the first to hear if there is ever door-to-door enforcement of medically injected save-you stuff.

Key phrase — those that trade their freedom for security get neither. People need to understand that that is the catch-phrase for these times. And I am utterly skeptical of all things.

And pharma industry is entirely captive, and you need to go watch James Corbit’s Rockefeller-Carniege capture of the health system where all alternative health therapy — it’s called “alternative” today but it was mainstream then — was treated as quackery, and now all you do is take chemical-solution pills for all ailments.

Your immune system is your weapon, and that’s the thing you should be looking after. And anything that undermines that should be avoided, and external disruptions into the natural bio-realm of your body are not warranted.

Everything we need — multi fall-out by themselves, we were designed pretty good. You had your suck-on-titty-teet teeth, and you had your chew-your-meat teeth, and when it was time to stop on titty, you got your chew-your-meat teeth. The body works. If we were meant to be cutting off foreskins or injecting under our arms or doing various other things, these things would have happened as matter of course because we’ve already shown an ability. Lizards can drop their tail to survive. We don’t need all of this.

The notion that we need all of this intrusive medicare apart from good nutrition, regular balanced diet, and exercise and good rest is ably farcical. In fact, we’d all be living longer, we’d all have stronger immune systems, and there would be far less autism and Asperger’s and everything else.

I’ve gone on a bit of a bio rant there, but that is a large part of getting through this phase. Build your wealth, secure the lifestyle you want, get much closer to the right friends, and cull the rest because by closing doors, it allows you to focus more on the core.

I’ve often burnt bridges. The key opportunity is the opportunity. I’m a trader at heart. I shut doors that I would never rehire again in the job world because I wanted one thing that I had to succeed in, and I kept showing up, and I kept loving it, and I kept building it, and I kept being in myself, which is absolute integrity, say exactly what you think and mean that it be clear so that you’re always consistent. And if you can do that to yourself and you can do that in your business, in the long run, you’ll win. It is the slow dough of your blue pot that I was mentioning in your trading account.

The guys that pump and dump coins… There was a guy on Crypto. I won’t say his name but he’s twice had events where guys have found him or somebody else buying coins on low liquidity coins that pump just before and sell straight after into the pump and then dump them. I don’t know if it’s true. I don’t know if he’s being badly treated, but the guys have seen it. I don’t have a dog in the fight, but don’t trade your integrity. Don’t trade your truth for anything.

Jay:  Francis, as always, I appreciate your candor. For anyone that’s listening, what you hear is what you see is what you get. Francis, like you said, you never waiver on integrity, and you stand by your values.

Let’s tie this in, your reset monologue here, let’s marry this with an investment outlook for the foreseeable future. What are the things that are going to outperform? Hopefully this doesn’t end as bleakly as some have painted it. And we hope it doesn’t end up in some sort of zombie apocalypse. It might. It might not. Let’s hope for the better, but either way, there are certain ways to position yourself, certain assets that will outperform.

We have the extrememly overvalued stock market. We have fiat currency, which is being printed at a ridiculous rate that’s going to be worthless soon, and we have our old-school gold, silver, precious metals. And then we have this new asset class of cryptos. You trade all of them.

How would you position yourself for the foreseeable future, given the backdrop of exactly what you just talked about?

Francis:  Absolutely. I’m going to cover all of that. One small point on the zombie apocalypse. I’m not trying to depress people. By setting a very low bar and taking action, you avoid depression yourself. People can get depressed, and they don’t want to face things. They’re ostrich in the ground.

The best thing is when you take action. Action cures all numbing of the mind. Trust me. What I just said sounds awful to me too, and I’m not here to bum people out. I’m saying that’s a low bar. It’s a real low bar. If it comes in better than that, I’m prepared for the low bar. That means I’m super prepared for if it gets better.

So always be optimistic of disposition but prepare for failure. Every trade we do, we anticipate in HVF form, but we size for failure. That’s just a good setting.

So size for failure and prepare for failure in many things in the reset. That preparation that’s not required was action that was taken that made you feel comfortable and sleep well and to be better set than other people and kept you focused on the game.

It’s an absolute killer for any mental depression or anything that you feel from anything I might have said or you’ve already noticed on your own accord.

 

Let’s turn to your question which is about investments and the markets.

There are going to be many gifts that are going to be polarizingly good. In the same way it’s as dark as winter as the previous question ended, there is the brightest of light. As part of this end of the cycle that is totally geometrically symmetrical, there will be extremists in opportunity.

The favorites are gold and silver, although you may have to watch if they become too popular and too short-supplied, government intervention. In other words, it’s illegal to own or can no longer be bought. Keep what you have, but it can be no longer bought or some other various interventions. Because at the end of the day, they don’t want the citizens to make all the wealth. There is a slavery class and a ruling class. But you’re going to get a chance to get some of it.

Silver and gold — silver is still my favorite. Gold is very useful and is more stable in your portfolio, both physically, and there will be trading opportunities in it. We just concluded a gold-euro-gold-pound two-day targets at HVF method called To the Final Cent, literally, for the full weekly setup and then a small wind up. Literally, you couldn’t have had a better method for trading the gold bull. If you got out, you would have missed out on this pull-back period. But it will come again, and those opportunities will get again, but there might be a pause.

Actually I’m a little bit cautious crypto at the moment. Macro, bull. Very bull macro. Bull macro and medium long-term. Right now I’m seeing a possibility that the dollar is going to firm.

Other trades that will be incredibly productive for people that could make substantial money, buy beautiful homes, 4×4 cars for their off-roading if they have to bend through the bushfeld, and all the toys, armory, and everything you might need to see out a crazy period in history that will hopefully end, will be bought on this trade alone. And that is the collapse on the emerging FX currencies against all currencies but particularly the dollar.

I still think Ben Johnson is accurate that there will be a Dollar Milkshake Theory ramp, and I think that the dollar starting to base out now. And it’s actually met the range we were expecting it to come down to. We had a 91.5 to 93.5 range. This was when it was just short of 100, and it’s come all the way back. It did fall pretty abruptly there. I wasn’t expecting it as abrupt, but it fell abruptly, but it’s also basing now.

You want to be short the lira. You want to be rand, ruble. You want to look at these technically and have methods are doing it, but there will be huge rewards.

I’ve spoken about the USD-Korean won. That trade hasn’t gone away. We just had a false break, and it pulled back with a dollar weakness back into what we call our funnel. That trade hasn’t gone away, and we still stand by that trade. It hasn’t stopped out. It hasn’t done anything wrong apart from a fail and break. And that one of the five stages of a breakout that it sometimes does. So it’s fully compliant to HVF method. The USD-Korean won, I’m talking a 50-plus percent move in a currency. I’m talking about a seven-digital trade on its own without having to have ridiculous sizing of it if you’ve got a fairly well stocked account potentially. Certainly six digits for guys that have $20,000 and $30,000 dollars if they can trade.

You’ve got the lira. You’ve got all of these. It’s going to roll through. There is going to be adjustments. The Hong Kong dollar will probably fail. It’s pegged. Most pegs will fail. As China subsumes it, there are going to be developments there, I’m almost certain. FX emergings, massive opportunity.

Jay:  So this is the near-term… What would you say? A two or three-year horizon, the near-term cream is going to be FX emerging failing versus the US dollar. And then a longer term perhaps would be you’re stacking your gold, your silvers, and potentially your crypto as well, like your Bitcoin?

Francis:  Yeah, macro crypto are going to run. I’m not a believer in any one coin. I need to see the charts, and it has to so it’s ongoing accumulation. As you know, from the beginning of the year, we biased Ethereum long to Bitcoin where previously I was even shorting Ethereum against Bitcoin in the bear market, asserting Bitcoin dominance. And Ethereum has outperformed the whole way until this pull-back period. And now we’ve gone a little bit more defensive. I’m in Stablecoins to defend. My largest holding is Stablecoins now. So I’m not sitting and expecting any meaning out of cryptos right now. And I think the odds are disproportionate that you might even have a setback than they are to go up.

I still think we need a down leg for Bitcoin before we’re in our full-blown break. The volume and the momentum has not been the kind of volume and momentum that we expect. And remember, we just look at HVFs all the time. We’ve become specialists at looking at one thing.

So I would like to think that we got a little bit better than general people commenting on the market have done, and we also, on this point, not to be a braggart, HVF method, after RH2, when we fell from the 10,100 level down was when we first asserted that this would be a macro continuation pattern that will break, at some point, to 25-, 26-, 27,000 targets with possibly overperformance because it’s the biggest of its scale. And most people, every time, all-time highs. Next move, all-time highs. Then it topped at 13-9, and we were right about it being a continuation pattern. We dipped to sub 4K on the COVID-19, but we never ran the low. It was a macro continuation pattern, and we said it at the time when you saw the shooting stars at the 13-9 level forming on the big time frame, and said, “Guys, this is not break out. Momentum is not going to an all-time. It will pull back. It’s probably forming a longer period continuum, a super macro continuation.” And that was way back now, probably 18 months ago now. I have to get a Bitcoin chart up and have a look at what the date was.

But then it broke that 10,000, and we eventually ended up in the COVID lows which actually traded sub-4000.

In our personal view on balance of probabilities using the phraseology “we encourage people to think,” because every time you say it, you’re triggering to your brain “we could always be wrong.” We are expecting a down leg on Bitcoin that’s currently trading at 11 and a half. I would still say a reasonable down leg is due out of Bitcoin. That means it’s not immediately that you’re going then later have your 27K run with possible overperformance.

And I’m not a guy that tries to get attention by throwing out “Bitcoin to 100,000,” “Bitcoin to a million.” There is no technical basis to get a chart that says a million at this juncture. This is no basis. Or even 100,000 at this point.

These are attention seekers that just want a following from people that have believed into it being free money owned only by the libertarians, governments have got no power in it. “It’s ours. It’s totally ours.”

Sorry, guys. They will never let you have your own money. If they don’t think they can control it in some form… There was even a guy who said, “We will tame Bitcoin.” You should listen to him. He’s straight out of the banking/regulatory-control crowd. It’s sad but true. I’d love it all to be true that we could have our own money, but these guys control us through money. They always have. They always will, if you understand the history of the world.

There are a couple of people that have a lot of naivete-type belief systems that… I’m the horrible guy. I ruin everybody’s Walt Disney fantasy story. They sell you Walt Disney when you’re a kid, and there is a whole bunch of people that sell the adult-version of it. You can decide if you’re going to buy it or not. I’m a non-buyer of fantasy stories. Psychopaths are psychopaths, and they don’t give up control, and that’s the game.

But don’t get me wrong, crypto can enrich you immensely and be part of that wealth-building process. And it’s faster, quicker, all the tech improvements, just like things have to get better in tech, otherwise, you’re going backwards. That will arrive.

Banks still charge you ridiculous amounts of money to send offshore, and long live the death of the old banking system, but just remember the old boss is gone. Long live the old boss. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Just a little faster, just a little quicker, but controlled by the same people.

That said, Bitcoin has a dip. I’m very optimistic, and then I think select alts will outperform Bitcoin, but there may be periods of Bitcoin dominance in that. And will check the charts at the time.

Overall, I’m expecting Bitcoin dominance to slowly bleed out down.

Jay:  This leads me to the last question in this section before we go to the conclusion. Again, I appreciate… I’ve taken up a lot of time, and I want to be mindful of that, so I thank you again for your time, Francis, and for all the insights that you’ve shared. You’ve been very generous with that.

The last question on this section… You just recently put out — I think it was on the Reset Sniper channel. You were talking about how we need to start thinking about things not in terms of US dollars but in terms of ounces of gold, perhaps, or sats or what have you. So in your mind, given the statement that, yes, the powers-that-be, or what have you, or the “control structure” as you call it, they’re not going to go away, and we’re just going to be living within the confines of this change, this transition, but there are still ways to be on the right side of that change and on the more prosperous side.

The end game here for us as individual investors, should we be aiming to just increase our investment pot in gold, solid, precious metals, and potentially cryptos over the years and then see how that goes versus holding fiat assets and maybe including real estate or hard assets in that category? Is that how you would position yourself here, let’s say, for the next ten years?

Francis:  Yes. A couple of things of how I would suggest that you mentally frame your investments, wealth, and how you manage it. Get a simple Excel sheet. At the very top, have the Bitcoin-USD price. Have silver-USD price, have the gold-USD price. Have three columns where you have all the Bitcoin you’ve accumulated or any other crypto. Have all the silver and gold ounces you’ve accumulated that you physically hold or have in vaulting services that you can collect. Don’t have a vaulting service where it’s not offered and you can’t reserve named, numbered bars. And you count how many gold ounces and silver. And each month, you calculate what your gold-ounce net worth is, your silver-ounce net worth, and your Bitcoin net worth. And if you’re an Ethereum bull, for example, maybe like I have been — I’m thinking if we pull it will pull back harder than Bitcoin, and we’ve already seen a bit of evidence for that — but I might do Ethereum as well, but that’s up to you. Know your Ethereum value.

And then switch the assets as they are going out of season so that you continue to accumulate gold ounces. So if I’m assessing Bitcoin and Ethereum are going to pull back harder than gold might pull back or even Stablecoin stroke dollars, have dollars in there. Have your dollar net worth, your silver net worth, your gold net worth. And the game should be building the net worth in whichever the current strongest one is that you assess for now. And have your three time frames — your trend, your current, and now. Because I think of a bit of a pull-back.

A Bitcoin net worth might be less interesting to me than a silver-ounce and a gold-ounce net worth. When we enter the crypto bull, the Bitcoin net worth is more relevant.

So calculate them all each time and know how much you’re holding.

But I might have lightened on investment Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others if I think there is a pull-back, and it will be in, say, Stablecoin, which means I’m not long-term holding in dollars, but I’ve got them in dollars. So I have a dollars column too.

Each time work all the totals back to your total dollar amount, your total gold amount in ounces, and your total everything. And then keep changing the gold and silver prices.

And if you’re going backwards, it’s because you overweight in the things that are going down. If you’re going forwards, then just be virture of positioning correctly, keep backing winners, move more into the thing that keeps leading.

So be an ETF on your own five valuations of wealth.

So you have dollars in Stablecoin. You have gold, silver, Bitcoin, and that’s it. And if you keep putting it in gold ounces, and the gold is climbing the most, keep moving more of what you accumulate.

Have savings into Bitcoin. I have auto-buying going on in Bitcoin. I have auto-buying going on in silver. Not so much in gold because I just want to be stacking silver on any dips. So I just want to be building the size. I want tons in silver, net. I don’t want to count in ounces. I want to know how many tons.

So the game is taking a whole bunch of metal out of the system and forcing this Ponzi scheme over, being part of the team that are tipping this fraught, broken system over, and that means… Look, everybody, it starts with one gram and one ounce at a time. But aim big. Get there. The weight picks up quickly when you’re doing it consistently for years.

So keep stacking auto in all of them potentially, but your liquid stuff move into the one that is medium-term strong.

We have HVF method to tell us that. We can do relative strength and assessment. But when the cryptos run, run, run, my assessment is that cryptos will move on a higher beater than both gold and silver.

If I just don’t like the cryptos but I don’t want to move too much money out of the system and de-platform it and then put it in a bank account move it around into a bullion-vault account, which I have links for on my YouTube by the way, and I’ve checked them out.

Jay:  We’ll add those to our show as well because you’ve been very generous with sharing that. I think you might even have a video or two on how to set it up. I don’t know. I’ll add your link because I know you have a relationship with them, to our show notes.

Francis:  Well, I just put forward people that I’m using myself. I’ll never endorse everything that I’m not prepared to use myself that I haven’t looked into properly. That’s as simple as that. There are very tie-ups. Unless I use it myself, I don’t put it forward. And that goes for my trading platforms as well.

Jay:  Look, I don’t want to take up too much of your time again. We’ve already run over, but thank you. That’s an excellent investment framework that you just gave us at the end. I think that’s a true, true gem because a lot of people don’t really think about things on that scale, and how you laid it out, it makes perfect sense. And the game is basically to go where the highest “leverage” or momentum is and build your wealth that way. And it’s very clear if you set it up that way. Looking to wrap up now, I just wanted to, again, thank you for your time. We’re going to include all the links where people could find you.

Are there any exciting projects or any announcements that you want to make or share with the audience before we look to wrap up here?

Francis:  My main message is a more optimistic one. Whatever goes down, you can’t control certain things that are above your station and scale, but you can control your reaction to them. The quality of your life is determined by the quality of the questions you ask.

Ask how all these things will serve you. Lots of things are going to become more convenient, easier to do. For all those that might have said, “Wow, there is some really dystopian scary stuff,” generally progress is designed to make your life easier. There are lots of things that are going to serve you very well.

If you’ve built wealth, if you’ve positioned strongly, you’ll be able to retain a large degree of your independence, in my view. If you take action and ask the right quality of questions, know all of this information, don’t hide from a truth because you don’t know how to deal with it. That’s cowardice. Accept the truth, take on, but frame it if it’s downing you out with “How does this serve me? How does this serve me that they will do that?”

And then say, “Well, it will serve my business because I’m going online. It will serve my XYZ because I’m doing this. I can be a leader amongst men because there will be many that will need help. That will create a market for me.” There is potential income streams for you if you develop a brand of integrity, bravery, and hard truth. It doesn’t matter what you do. If you can have those three things in whatever you do, you’re going to succeed. You’re going to succeed.

Do those things, and build your wealth honestly.

The polarizing event is going to lead to incredible movement in markets that if you have a real method, and even if you don’t… Say you say, “I don’t want to be a part of whatever you do. Don’t sell to me,” that’s fine. I understand. If you just invest in the four assets that we mentioned and just buy and hold and keep accumulating, you’ll still do pretty damn well.

If you are capable of running the three-part strategies and you want to exploit certain unique moments, you’re welcome to join us. It’s not for the faint-hearted. Trading isn’t for everybody. You don’t have to be on the screens all the time, hence the lifestyle trader and all the sizing and the work being done before.

Be part of a community of awake people. Develop that and you’re going to do just fine. In fact, your life is going to be better than it ever was before.

Those that sleep and those that don’t prepare, there is a divining point. There is a polarizing point. But unfortunately, you can’t save everybody. Focus on saving your family and your best friends that support you and back you and you’ll have plenty of work to do. And work is a good thing. It’s reasons to get up in the morning. It’s earnings. It’s freedom through what you earn on it.

This is going to be a great… The best of times and the worst of times. It’s like the beginning of… I can’t remember which classic book. “It was the best of time. It was the worst of times.” Someone will fill it in the notes and say, “You dumb idiot, why can’t you remember?” But my memory is terrible. One of the classics. Anyway, it will be exactly that, and you get to determine by what you do today, now, which side of that you’re going to see more of.

And I’m saying to you just taking action, even dumb action, is better than being paralyzed in fear. Fear is what they might want. Respond in courage, optimism, truth, integrity, hard truth, and reframe things you don’t like in how they serve you. “How does this serve me?” Write down the answers to everything you hate that is happening that I might have suggested could happen. How does it serve you? And once you’ve written ten reasons how it serves you, go execute on maximizing those points.

And let me tell you, you’re living a different quality of life regardless of what the Bolsheviks get up to, regardless of how they do it. Because if you plan and you prepare, you will do well.

That’s my final message of optimism, but I won’t coat hard truths in sugar for anybody either. It’s a challenging time, but all the best years of my life were the most challenging years, coming through anything. The best years of your life are coming. They’re happening right now.

Storm towards them, locked and loaded and ready to embrace or be washed away by the wave. You’ll either be surfing it or you’ll be drown by it, and you can determine which one of those you are. That is how I’d like to sign off.

Jay:  That’s excellent.  Thank you again so much for your time, Francis. We’re going to have all the links to your channels. And lastly, you have a couple of social media handles on Twitter that people can follow you. Do you mind giving those to us for the audience?

Francis:  It’s @TheMarketSniper on Twitter — that’s the primary one for traditional markets — @TheCryptoSniper for crypto markets, and @TheResetSniper for my angry—

Jay:  That’s the good stuff.

Francis:  —raging against the machines and criticism of Marxist movements like Black Lives Matter and all of these things. All the madness goes on in there. And the YouTube channel is the same. The YouTube channels are all the same. Each one with “the.” The Market Sniper, The Crypto Sniper, The Reset Sniper. And, of course, they can go to the website which is The Market Sniper. So it’s www.TheMarketSniper.com.

Book a call. It costs absolutely nothing. We don’t mind. We don’t have salesmen. We’ve got people that are part of the community that came just like you. Ask them, “Is it worth my while? Will I get a return on investment?”

If you’ve got a smart nose, you’ll smell bullshit if you hear it. Find out what it is we do. They’ll demo some of that. But only if you want to. If you don’t and this has just been valuable for you to listen to, that’s also cool.

Grab the free stuff. We have a mini-series on our YouTube channel. I’ll ask Alex to send you the link as well so that you can host that for your guys, Jay. Grab the free stuff. Follow the YouTube channel. That costs you absolutely nothing. We have no adverts on the channel. You can get to see how we see this unfurling of this period and how we’ll prepare and our best advice for going forward in these times.

And as I say, the best of times are ahead. Every morning I wake up, the best days are yet to come. That is it. And I feel like that every morning.

Jay:  Fantastic. It’s been such a pleasure catching up with you and chatting with you. And we really appreciate all the insights, and we’re looking forward to connecting again in the future. Until then, thanks again, Francis, and we’ll talk to you soon.

Francis:  My pleasure. Great to be on your podcast.